Arya News - The US-China rivalry is already reshaping the world and will define geopolitics for years to come, Mr. Wong told an audience of about 900 at the annual S. Rajaratnam Lecture on April 16.
SINGAPORE – The United States and China claim they do not wish to force countries to choose sides but, in reality, each seeks to draw others into its own orbit, said Prime Minister Lawrence Wong.
Their rivalry is already reshaping the world and will define geopolitics for years to come, he told an audience of about 900 at the annual S. Rajaratnam Lecture on April 16.
“We are in the midst of a messy transition globally. To what, nobody can tell,” PM Wong said in a speech at the Singapore University of Technology and Design.
He noted that the US is stepping back from its traditional role as the guarantor of order and the world’s policeman, but neither China nor any other country is willing or able to fill the vacuum.
These changes mean a post-World War II rules-based international order that Singapore thrived in for the past 60 years – one shaped and underwritten by American leadership – is fraying, PM Wong said.
“The conditions that sustained it no longer hold,” he added.
Nations are turning inward, prioritising their own narrow interests, he said.
Alongside rising geopolitical unease, there is growing turbulence in the international economic system, PM Wong noted.
Geopolitical competition has returned with a vengeance, and the major powers no longer feel economically secure.
PM Wong said that economic instruments – such as tariffs, export controls and sanctions – are being used not for market purposes, but as instruments of statecraft to advance national interests.
“These trends are not new, but they have reached a new intensity with the latest US tariff moves,” he said.
On April 2, US President Donald Trump announced wide-ranging tariffs, hitting Asian countries particularly hard. He later postponed most of the “reciprocal” tariffs, but announced further tariffs on China of up to 145 per cent. China responded with tariffs of up to 125 per cent.
The changes have already created great uncertainty for businesses everywhere, PM Wong said.
He added that the US and China are entering a full-blown trade war, and the deterioration of trade ties will accelerate the decoupling of the two economies.
“What we are witnessing is the remaking of the global economy – not as one integrated system, but as increasingly bifurcated ecosystems centred around America and China,” he said.
In this environment, countries everywhere are re-examining strategic assumptions and recalibrating their policies, said PM Wong, who is also Finance Minister.
There is palpable anxiety in Europe about over-reliance on US military support, with Asia watching these developments just as closely.
He said America’s abrupt recalibration of support for Europe has prompted Asian countries to question the durability of its commitment to the region.
US Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth had, on his first trip to Asia, sought to reassure regional partners by saying that “America First does not mean America alone”, PM Wong noted.
Even so, countries will take steps to strengthen their own capabilities in case help does not arrive in time, said PM Wong. “That’s why in both Japan and South Korea, public debate over defence has intensified.”
There are calls to bolster deterrence, and even discussions, once considered taboo, about acquiring nuclear weapons, he said. “What was once unthinkable is now openly contemplated.”
America’s disillusionment with global engagement
PM Wong also outlined the domestic changes in the US that have caused it to shift its global stance.
Many Americans feel left behind by globalisation – their communities have suffered job losses, stagnant wages and social dislocation, he said.
“There is a growing sense that other countries are benefiting disproportionately from America’s security umbrella and access to its markets, while contributing little in return.”
He added that the long and costly wars in the Middle East deepened public weariness towards foreign entanglements, while the 2008 global financial crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic have caused further disruptions and dislocations.
“So there is now a strong and growing impulse within the US to turn inward – to focus on its own domestic priorities, and to scale back costly overseas commitments,” he said, adding that this shift is evident under the current US administration.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has highlighted that America’s unique role was an anomaly and a product of the end of the Cold War, PM Wong noted.
This sentiment is not limited to one political party, he said.
“It reflects deeper, structural changes in American society – that the US can no longer afford to lead the world in resolving every problem, and needs to cut back on what it does abroad,” he added.
“So this may not just be a temporary change in policy. This could reflect the new normal in the US for some time to come.”
The global order that America once sustained created the international context in which Singapore took flight, PM Wong said.
He referenced a 1972 speech by Mr S. Rajaratnam – Singapore’s first foreign minister – where he outlined how Singapore could benefit from an era of open trade and rules-based cooperation.
“This vision flourished because of the global environment of cooperation, rules and stability, and because Singapore chose to plug into this global system,” PM Wong said.
He noted that the US took an extraordinary approach for a victorious power after World War II, and subsequently stood alone as the sole superpower after the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991.
Its leadership and security umbrella maintained peace and stability in Asia, and created an environment in which countries like Singapore could thrive, he said.
The US supported decolonisation and helped rebuild the economies of its defeated enemies, Germany and Japan, and launched the Marshall Plan to help Western Europe get back on its feet, he said.
It also established global institutions like the United Nations, International Monetary Fund and World Bank, and championed free trade and open markets.
“All this promoted an international system of rules and norms that enabled global cooperation. It created space for smaller nations like Singapore to participate meaningfully in world affairs and to benefit from global trade and development,” PM Wong said.
America, he added, pursued these efforts out of “enlightened self-interest”.
“Having been dragged into two world wars, it was determined to prevent another global conflict.
“It believed that by applying its power to uphold such a global order, it could foster peace and prosperity – not just for the world, but also for itself.”
As America turns inward, China – which benefited immensely from the US-led order – has emerged as a “near peer” competitor, PM Wong said.
A new generation of Chinese, raised in an era of rapid growth and national revival, believe that “the East is rising, and the West is declining”, he said.
The pair are now locked in a fierce contest for global supremacy. Neither country wants open conflict, but there is deep mistrust and suspicion on both sides, he added.
“As economic ties fray, other aspects of the US-China relationship will come under greater strain. Trust will erode further. Tensions will rise across multiple domains,” PM Wong said.
“For a small, open economy like Singapore, these global developments are deeply worrying.”
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