Arya News - The honeymoon period in Thai politics ended long ago. The country has now entered a phase of real damage as tensions between coalition parties spiral into a full-blown clash between two dominant camps: the red and the blue.
BANGKOK – The honeymoon period in Thai politics ended long ago. The country has now entered a phase of real damage—real consequences—as tensions between coalition parties spiral into a full-blown clash between two dominant camps: the red and the blue.
The Election Commission (EC) and the Department of Special Investigation (DSI) have struck early and decisively, launching their opening salvo by issuing summonses to 55 key senators in the Senate vote-rigging scandal. This special case has sent tremors throughout the blue camp’s network, hitting hardest within the Ministry of Interior and certain affiliated political parties.
Meanwhile, Thaksin Shinawatra finds himself increasingly constrained. The Medical Council’s ruling that three doctors submitted inaccurate or misleading medical documentation has added serious weight to allegations that his prolonged stay on the 14th floor of the Police General Hospital was medically unjustified—a case of a fabricated illness.
Thaksin’s court appearances are now becoming more frequent. On May 8—the same day the Medical Council ruled against the doctors—he filed a petition to leave the country in relation to his Article 112 case. The court rejected it. On June 13, the Supreme Court’s Criminal Division for Holders of Political Positions is scheduled to convene to review whether Thaksin’s one-year sentence has been properly enforced.
Caught in the middle of this red-blue war is Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, who now finds herself navigating a brutal political landscape. On one side stands her father. On the other hand, a powerful coalition partner with vast influence over government machinery—one that has increasingly obstructed Pheu Thai’s initiatives at every turn and reportedly holds mechanisms to unseat her in its hands.
The pressure surrounding Paetongtarn is immense. Beyond the political minefield, she must still manage a country plagued by crisis after crisis: distrust among coalition partners, sluggish economic growth, renewed violence in the deep south, and a raft of flagship policies that remain stalled or adrift. Add to that global trade pressures and domestic discontent, and it’s no wonder the Prime Minister may find it hard to breathe.
This is no ordinary political storm—it’s a perfect one. And Paetongtarn is right in its eye.
Even before Paetongtarn became Prime Minister, sharp observers had warned: the moment she assumed office, she would become politically shackled—a hostage by virtue of her surname. Today, that prediction may well be unfolding.
The unfolding Senate vote-rigging scandal seems to go far beyond the 55 senators named so far. Evidence gathered by the DSI and the Election Commission points to deeper links, reaching into the inner circles of high-ranking politicians, including ministers.
Tensions between the two dominant power blocs—red and blue—are no longer strategic but deeply personal, driven by long-standing grudges and vendettas. The open exchange of political blows is bound to shorten the government’s lifespan.
A key signal to watch is the passage of the 2026 national budget bill. If it passes Parliament on schedule, it may be the last legislative success of this fragile coalition. After that, the political bottle may be shaken for real—a total reset, potentially leading to early elections.
Some speculate that the budget process could become the trigger to topple the Prime Minister or change leadership. But such a move may be overkill—there are cleaner, quieter ways. For instance, if enough senators petition the Constitutional Court over her qualifications or conduct, it could achieve the same result without the political self-sabotage.
For now, few seasoned politicians would dare blow up the current order. They still hold the power to allocate the budget—why destroy their own leverage or cut off funding they may soon need? If snap elections are imminent, passing the budget swiftly becomes even more urgent. Without it, those returning to power may find themselves with no tools to govern.
In this fragile climate, Prime Minister Paetongtarn’s best option may simply be survival—keeping her position intact while riding out the storm. The hope is that both rival factions can be persuaded to pull back before a full-blown political accident derails her future.
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